Sunday, February 16, 2014

The 5 Most Productive Current NBA Players You've Probably Never Heard Of

For every LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony, there is an Alan Anderson, Lavoy Allen, Nate Wolters, and Mike Harris. In other words, for every superstar player with national name recognition, there is another player that nobody has ever heard of. And by "nobody" I mean casual basketball fans. Some of these players are incredibly productive, All-Star caliber players who have the misfortune of playing in small markets, or with huge names, or just fly under the radar for no reason at all. To test my theory I mentioned the five names in this list to two friends of mine who happen to be casual basketball fans. One didn't recognize any of them, even though he's a Laker fan, and the other had only heard of one, and that's only because he is from Detroit and keeps an eye on the Pistons.

As statistics get mentioned, a few are not the usual ones you would see in a normal box score. Sabermetrics, gotta love them. A break down of some of these stats (ex: Player Efficiency Rating/PER, Value Added/VA) can be seen at the bottom of this page.

5. Kendall Marshall - PG, Los Angeles Lakers
I know "productive" doesn't really match up with the Lakers current situation, but give them a break. Their most well-known players are either really old or injured. Now, they are led by the castoffs/rejects/non-producers of other teams. Which is funny, because they just played, and won, one of the strangest games you'll read about for a while. And Kendall Marshall has filled in remarkably well during these trying times.

Who?

6'4", 195-pound Point Guard. Drafted out of North Carolina in 2012, 1st round, 13th overall by the Phoenix Suns. Spent one year there, then signed in mid-December with the Lakers this year.

The Credentials:

Marshall was the starting point guard on consecutive North Carolina teams that lost in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA tournament. During those two years, Marshall averaged a combined 7.2 points per game and 8.0 assists per game. Those numbers were 8.1 and 9.8, respectively, in his last year. Averaging almost ten assists per game is quite an accomplishment at the NBA level. Doing it in college is almost unheard of. Since the '97-'98 season, a total of 5 players have averaged at least 9 assists per game. Only two of them averaged more than Marshall's 9.8, and those averages were 9.91 by players from Long Island University and Iona College. Those schools aren't exactly playing the best opponents the country has to offer.

In his first season in the league he didn't get many opportunities to play, averaging only 14 minutes per game in the 48 games he played. This year with the Lakers he's started 15 of the 22 games he's been in, and made the most of it. Averaging around 31 minutes per game, he dishes out 9.2 assists. Coupled with his 2.5 turnovers per game, his 3.63 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 5th in the league, 3rd amongst players with at least 200 assists. Only Chris Paul (perennial best-point-guard-in-the-league) at 4.47 and Jose Calderon (whom you also probably haven't heard of because he plays in Canada) at 4.12 are more generous per mishap. Pretty good for a guy who hasn't even played enough games to account for a full season in the league, yet. Did I mention he's Steve Nash's backup? He'd be higher on the list if not for his low 14.9 PER.


4. Ryan Anderson - PF, New Orleans Pelicans
Wait, you didn't know the Pelicans were a thing? Don't worry. You're not alone. They're 22nd in the league in attendance, so their own fans barely know they're an NBA franchise. And with such household names as Al-Farouq Aminu, Alexis Ajinca, Brian Roberts, Greg Stiemsma, and Jeff Withey populating their sideline, it's a wonder anybody shows up at all. Even the players are sometimes baffled. Watch their rookies get interviewed last year. Darius Miller looks just as confused at the start of the interview process as I am. "There's really a team named the Pelicans? And I'm on it??" Despite the soul-stealing vortex that is created by a team named after a bird who's only claim to fame is having a bigger mouth than Avery Johnson, there are a couple players who actually know what they're doing. Ryan Anderson is one of them.

Who?

6'10", 240-pound Power Forward. Drafted out of Cal in 2008, 1st round, 21st overall, by the New Jersey Nets. One season there followed by three in Orlando. This is his 2nd in New Orleans.

The Credentials:

After starting in only 49 of the 193 games he played in his first three full seasons, averaging less than 23 minutes per game over that stretch, Anderson started all 61 games he played in for the Magic during his 4th year, and has averaged at least 30 minutes per game since then. It's up to 36 this year. If I asked you to name the only player to rank first or second in the league in 3-pointers made per game in each of the previous two years, the only reason you'd answer with Ryan Anderson is because that's who I'm talking about right now. (He's also top 2 this season, too.) His normal per game averages are decent: 19.8 points, 6.5 rebounds this year; 16.2/6.4 last year, 16.1/7.7 the year before. But the fact that he is so prolific from behind the arc makes him valuable not only for his point production, but it forces the defense to stretch out, leaving more room for plays in the middle. It's no mistake that this "highlight" video is mostly outside shots:


Even with my general opposition to the 3-pointer, the level of Anderson's production cannot be ignored. I mean, setting aside the fact that he's on the Pelicans.

3. DeMar DeRozan - SG, Toronto Raptors
Yes, there's still an NBA team in Canada, even after the Grizzlies ditched Vancouver for Memphis. Yes, they're actually kind of good. Their 28-24 record heading into the All-Star break is the best mark of any team in the Eastern Conference that doesn't have LeBron James or Paul George on it. And they have a history that includes Air Canada, T-Mac, and sweet jerseys. DeMar DeRozan is doing his best to continue the legacy... Err, tradition... Err, nevermind.

Who?

6'7", 216-pound Shooting Guard. Drafted out of Southern California in 2009, 1st round, 9th overall by Toronto. This is his 5th year in the league and with the Raptors.

The Credentials:

In his one year at USC, DeRozan averaged 14 points and just under 6 rebounds per game. With teammates Taj Gibson, currently in his 5th and most productive year with the Bulls, and Nikola Vucevic, in his third year in the league and second as a full-time starter for the Orlando Magic, the Trojans managed to make it to the second round of the NCAA tournament before bowing out to Michigan State. DeRozan definitely had star potential back then, seemingly filling the lofty, offensive-oriented shoes of Nick Young. But the one-and-done scenario has claimed many a college standout, and DeRozan jumped ship as soon as he was eligible. Can you tell I'm a bitter USC fan?

DeRozan has been a starter in the league pretty much since day one. Of his 352 career games played, only 12 have been off the bench. And while his numbers during his first 4 years are nothing to scoff at, he has risen his game to a whole new level this year. DeRozan is averaging career highs in minutes (37.7 per game), points (22.3), rebounds (4.6), assists (3.9), steals (1.2), blocks (0.5) and multiple other categories. He ranks 3rd in the league in Value Added amongst shooting guards, and 23rd overall. He's also 14th overall in Usage Rate. Essentially, he makes things happen when he's on the court; which happens to be the 7th-most in the league in terms of minutes per game. DeRozan's points and rebounds per 40 minutes have gone up each of the last three years, as have his turnover and rebound rates and his player efficiency rating. His assists per 40 minutes and assist ratio have increased every year he's been in the league. And he brings it:
This being his fifth year in the league, his name is becoming more well known by the day. But the best player on the 3rd-best team in the conference got his first All-Star selection this year. He probably won't be included on this list for much longer.

2. Andre Drummond - C, Detroit Pistons
In the six years from 2002/2003 through 2007/2008, the Detroit Pistons made it at least as far as the Eastern Conference Finals every year, winning the NBA Championship once and losing in the Finals once during that stretch. In the four years from 2009/2010 through 2012/2013, their record was a combined 111-201, for a winning percentage of .356. That's not just bad, that's real bad. And then Andre Drummond started his second year in the league.

Who?

6'10", 270-pound Center. Drafted out of Connecticut in 2012, 1st round, 9th overall by Detroit. This is his second year in the league and with the Pistons.

The Credentials:

In his one year at Connecticut, Drummond averaged 10 points, 7.6 rebounds, and just under 3 blocks per game. On a team featuring sophomores Jeremy Lamb (drafted 12th overall pick in the same year, key contributor off the bench for the Oklahoma City Thunder) and Shabazz Napier (now a senior averaging 17 ppg for an 18-5 UConn team), freshman Drummond was a major asset and contributor despite an early loss in the NCAA tournament. Drafted mostly on his potential (athleticism for days, with impressive mobility and touch for a big man, as evidenced by the highlight video below of his one year at UConn) instead of what he'd accomplished in that one year, Drummond had a modest rookie year for the Pistons last year. Averaging 7.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game in 20 minutes per game off the bench, there was clearly room for improvement.

In this, his second year, Drummond has exceeded any possible expectations laid out for him. Averaging 13 points, 13 rebounds (3rd in the league), 5.3 offensive rebounds (1st; 2nd is 4.2), and nearly 2 blocks per game, Drummond has proven that he can fill a full-time role as both an offensive and defensive anchor down low for a long time. He ranks 4th in PER for centers, 16th overall. He ranks 3rd in Value Added for centers, 14th overall. Those are massive numbers for a second year big man on a mediocre team. To that point, the only centers ranked ahead of him are DeMarcus Cousins, Brook Lopez, Al Jefferson, and Dwight Howard. All established, big-time players. Off the court issues notwithstanding. (*Cough* Dwight *Cough* *Cough* DeMarcus.)

It should be noted that Andre Drummond may be a little more well-known after posting 30 points and 25 rebounds in his MVP-winning performance in the Rising Stars game during All-Star weekend a couple days ago. But then again, nobody watches those things.

1. Goran Dragic - PG, Phoenix Suns
From 2004/05 through 2009/10, also known as the "Prime Steve Nash Years", the Suns were the most prolific team in the NBA. They led the league in scoring every year but one (when they were 0.9 ppg behind the leader), only twice failing to reach 110 ppg, but never averaging less than 108. Along the way they compiled a 332-160 record, equating to a win percentage of 67.5%. Then Amar'e Stoudemire and Leandro Barbosa left. And they added an old Vince Carter to a roster with also-old Nash and Grant Hill.. Things went downhill as fast as things that old can move. Luckily for them, Goran Dragic is a significantly younger piece of the puzzle.

Who?

6'4", 180-pound Shooting Guard. Drafted out of Slovenia in 2008, 2nd round, 45th overall by San Antonio. A draft day trade sent him to Phoenix, where he played 2 1/2 seasons before being traded to the Houston Rockets. He played 1 1/2 seasons with them before signing with the Suns again and is in his 2nd year in his second stint with them.

The Credentials:

Born and raised in Slovenia, Dragic spent the early part of his adult life as a star player on multiple professional teams in leagues in Slovenia, earning All-Star accolades and league championships, in addition to playing for the Slovenian national team in multiple European and World Championship tournaments.

At the age of 22, Dragic made the jump to the NBA. His first three years in the league, split between time with Phoenix and Houston, saw limited production in less than twenty minutes of playing time per game. During his fourth year in the league, and last with the Rockets, he profited from a significant increase in playing time. Starting in 28 of a lockout-shortened 66 games, Dragic posted career highs across the board that earned him a new, lucrative contract back with the Suns. As a full-time starter for the first time last season, he averaged more career highs in points (14.7 per game), rebounds (3.1) and assists (7.4), establishing himself as a real playmaker and improving as the season went on. During his last 26 games of the year, Dragic had 15 double-doubles of points and assists. Some of these performances were greater than others: 16 pts, 18 ast; 17/16; 31/12 (and 9 rebounds); 21/13; and 21/14.

This year has only been another step up for Dragic. In the 48 games before the All-Star break, he averaged 20.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 51% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from behind the arc. And his Hollinger stats are astounding. He ranks 1st among all shooting guards in True Shooting percentage, Player Efficiency Rating, Value Added, and Estimated Wins Added. And he doesn't rank lower than 13th in any of the last three categories league-wide. In other words, Goran Dragic has established himself as one of the most valuable players in the league. In a Dick Vitale voice: "That's productivity, baby!" And yet, he couldn't get a spot on the All-Star team this year. If that's not a sign of being under-appreciated throughout the league, then I don't know what is. Also, here's a compilation of some of his highlights from the first half of the year:

And in case any of you want to know what kind of training goes into making all of those plays, here's a small glimpse:
In case you are one of those people who are delusional enough to think you can hang with the paid professionals you watch on television, that video should change your perception drastically. As a side note, Dragic is one of my favorite players in the league right now, if only because he's who I believe I could have been had I even a small amount of drive to be a good basketball player when I was younger. We're the same age (I'm 39 days older), and even though I'm 3 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier, we have similar playing styles. Except he does it 100 times better than I do. So I will continue to live my NBA dreams through him and be his personal cheerleader so that he will eventually no longer need to be on this list.

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